Saturday, May 25, 2013

Karnataka 2013: What Next?

It may not have made a monumental difference to its result. Yet, I did not enjoy being forced to watch the recent state elections in Karnataka entirely from the sidelines. I had little choice though. Our move to India's IT Capital was far too recent for us to have a vote, and I got a taste of what it would feel to be among the disenfranchised.

As it turned out, the contest was even more one-sided than expected. The incumbent BJP dispensation, battling misgovernance and corruption charges as much as a widely perceived disconnect with the electorate, was always faced with an uphill task. Perhaps it would have weathered the storm better. However, a three-way split in its vote left it with no chance. A beleaguered Congress, stung nationally by a second summer of scandal (and intervening winter of discontent), had some reason to cheer with a clear mandate in the state.

I don't know if many in the BJP were surprised by the result. Sure, India's principal Opposition party would have been happier if not pipped to #2 status by an HDK led JD-S. Equally, they rightly worry about the ground ceded, not only to a resurgent Congress but even the JD-S, in the usually more discerning urban vote. Yet, the saffron dream had gone sour in their fabled 'Gateway to the South' a lot earlier. Naturally, their spokespersons tried their feisty best to minimize airtime on Karnataka results, and focus debate in national media on the scam-battered Centre. (That a bumbling UPA-2 continues to provide grist to these windmills, has more to it than meets the eye perhaps; but that is another story.)

Does the Congress have enough to rejoice in its Vidhan Soudha victory? I would call it a mixed bag. Faced with a possibile rout in Andhra and expected reverses in TN, the UPA is desperately looking at states to make up its losses. As things stand, it comes up woefully short. That, incidentally is the reason behind the unashamed wooing of a Nitish in Bihar despite a 'committed' Laloo ji who remains Barkis-is-willin'. One hears of a personal subtext too in Shri Chidambaram's new-found bonhomie with the Bihar CM; a fact that Congress High Command may be unwilling to admit publicly. At any rate, gains in Karnataka help, but must be seen in context of its relatively small 28 MP size in Lok Sabha arithmetic.

How does that leave the BJP (in itself a complicated call; it seems too much to prognosticate on the NDA overall) in 2014 battle stakes? It is clear that they have their work cut out. For starters, the fixation with the leadership question is almost reminiscent of the erstwhile Janata party; as if the electoral contest was in the bag and this was the only issue left to be resolved.

At one level, the BJP's predicament is understandable. It is difficult to see the party cross 200 minus Narendra Modi at the helm (so the cadre believes). Truly, no figure polarizes the debate in India today more than he. That so few folks in our polity tread the middle ground when it comes to NaMo, must count as a significant achievement of post-2002 Congress strategy. Of course, a wide section of the media sympathetic either directly to it, or to the 'secular' cause, has willingly played ball. The last word on this remains to be said though; I am sure this will occupy centrestage over the next few months.

Coming back to Karnataka, it is do-or-die for the new regime to consolidate the vote ahead of LS elections next year. Fact is that 2014 remains a tough call. Can the UPA get its governance mechanism back enough to perform an unlikley hat-trick? Shall the BJP and-or NDA get its house in order, politically and electorally, to get third time lucky? Or will an unfortunate nation be subject to a post-poll Third Front-led ragtag coalition as many pundits currently postulate? Lets keep watching.