It may not have made a monumental difference to the result, but I did not enjoy being forced to watch the recent state elections in Karnataka entirely from the sidelines. I had little choice though. Our move to India's IT capital was far too recent for us to have a vote, and I got a taste of what it feels like to be among the disenfranchised.
As it turned out, the contest was even more one-sided than expected. The incumbent BJP dispensation, battling misgovernance and corruption charges as much as a widely perceived disconnect with the electorate, was always facing an uphill task. Perhaps it could have weathered the storm better; a three-way split in its vote left it with no chance. A beleaguered Congress, stung nationally by a second summer of scandal (and an intervening winter of discontent), had some reason to cheer with a clear mandate in the state.
I don't know if many in the BJP were truly surprised by the result. Sure, India's principal opposition party would have been happier had it not been pipped to #2 by an HDK-led JD-S. Equally, they rightly worry about the ground ceded, not only to a resurgent Congress but even to the JD-S, in the usually more discerning urban vote. Yet, the saffron dream had gone sour in their fabled 'Gateway to the South' a lot earlier. Naturally, their spokespersons tried their feisty best to minimise airtime on Karnataka results, and focus debate in national media on the scam-battered Centre. (That a bumbling UPA-2 continues to provide grist to these windmills has more to it than meets the eye, perhaps; but that is another story.)
Does the Congress have enough to rejoice in its Vidhan Soudha victory? I would call it a mixed bag. Faced with a possible rout in Andhra and expected reverses in TN, the UPA is desperately looking at states to make up its losses. As things stand, it comes up woefully short. That, incidentally is the reason behind the unashamed wooing of a Nitish in Bihar despite a 'committed' Laloo ji who remains perpetually Barkis-is-willin'. One hears of a personal subtext too in Shri Chidambaram's new-found bonhomie with the Bihar CM; a fact that the Congress High Command may be unwilling to admit publicly. At any rate, gains in Karnataka help, but must be seen in the context of its relatively small 28-MP size in Lok Sabha arithmetic.
How does that leave the BJP (in itself a complicated call; it seems too much to prognosticate on the NDA overall) in the 2014 battle stakes? It is clear that they have their work cut out. For starters, this fixation with prime ministerial ambition is almost reminiscent of the erstwhile Janata Party — counting chickens long before the electoral eggs have hatched.
At one level, the BJP's predicament is understandable. It is difficult to see the party cross the 200 mark minus Narendra Modi at the helm (so the cadre believes). Truly, no figure polarises the debate in India today more than he. That so few folks in our polity tread the middle ground when it comes to NaMo must count as a significant (and hilariously unintended) achievement of post-2002 Congress strategy. Of course, a wide section of the media sympathetic either directly to it or to the 'secular' cause, has willingly played ball. The last word on this remains to be said though; I am sure this will occupy centre-stage over the next few months.
Coming back to Karnataka, it is do-or-die for the new regime to consolidate the vote ahead of LS elections next year. The fact is that 2014 remains a tough call. Can the UPA get its governance mechanism back together enough to perform an unlikely hat-trick? Will the BJP or the NDA get its house in order, politically and electorally, to be third time lucky? Or will an unfortunate nation be subject to a post-poll Third Front-led ragtag coalition as many pundits currently postulate? Let's keep watching.
As it turned out, the contest was even more one-sided than expected. The incumbent BJP dispensation, battling misgovernance and corruption charges as much as a widely perceived disconnect with the electorate, was always facing an uphill task. Perhaps it could have weathered the storm better; a three-way split in its vote left it with no chance. A beleaguered Congress, stung nationally by a second summer of scandal (and an intervening winter of discontent), had some reason to cheer with a clear mandate in the state.
I don't know if many in the BJP were truly surprised by the result. Sure, India's principal opposition party would have been happier had it not been pipped to #2 by an HDK-led JD-S. Equally, they rightly worry about the ground ceded, not only to a resurgent Congress but even to the JD-S, in the usually more discerning urban vote. Yet, the saffron dream had gone sour in their fabled 'Gateway to the South' a lot earlier. Naturally, their spokespersons tried their feisty best to minimise airtime on Karnataka results, and focus debate in national media on the scam-battered Centre. (That a bumbling UPA-2 continues to provide grist to these windmills has more to it than meets the eye, perhaps; but that is another story.)
Does the Congress have enough to rejoice in its Vidhan Soudha victory? I would call it a mixed bag. Faced with a possible rout in Andhra and expected reverses in TN, the UPA is desperately looking at states to make up its losses. As things stand, it comes up woefully short. That, incidentally is the reason behind the unashamed wooing of a Nitish in Bihar despite a 'committed' Laloo ji who remains perpetually Barkis-is-willin'. One hears of a personal subtext too in Shri Chidambaram's new-found bonhomie with the Bihar CM; a fact that the Congress High Command may be unwilling to admit publicly. At any rate, gains in Karnataka help, but must be seen in the context of its relatively small 28-MP size in Lok Sabha arithmetic.
How does that leave the BJP (in itself a complicated call; it seems too much to prognosticate on the NDA overall) in the 2014 battle stakes? It is clear that they have their work cut out. For starters, this fixation with prime ministerial ambition is almost reminiscent of the erstwhile Janata Party — counting chickens long before the electoral eggs have hatched.
At one level, the BJP's predicament is understandable. It is difficult to see the party cross the 200 mark minus Narendra Modi at the helm (so the cadre believes). Truly, no figure polarises the debate in India today more than he. That so few folks in our polity tread the middle ground when it comes to NaMo must count as a significant (and hilariously unintended) achievement of post-2002 Congress strategy. Of course, a wide section of the media sympathetic either directly to it or to the 'secular' cause, has willingly played ball. The last word on this remains to be said though; I am sure this will occupy centre-stage over the next few months.
Coming back to Karnataka, it is do-or-die for the new regime to consolidate the vote ahead of LS elections next year. The fact is that 2014 remains a tough call. Can the UPA get its governance mechanism back together enough to perform an unlikely hat-trick? Will the BJP or the NDA get its house in order, politically and electorally, to be third time lucky? Or will an unfortunate nation be subject to a post-poll Third Front-led ragtag coalition as many pundits currently postulate? Let's keep watching.
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1 comments:
Well, with 2014 done and dusted, and the protagonist upstaging all with a clear majority, meant the dawn of a new era in the Indian politics. Objectives were defined, expectations were set, benchmarks redefined, the country was set for a roller coaster ride. 28 months and counting, no significantly visible changes, unending foreign visits, lacklustre budget and so on so forth. Are the remaining 32 months going to be used for securing the next 60, or will opportunity accorded to them by the electorate manifest itself in visible changes over this remaining period, is anybody's guess....
Its' been a while since you flirted with the keyboard's of your I pad, to instigate the juices of many a brains that religiously follow your blog....
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